2006 Results Analysis

    The results are in!  They look pretty grim, though.  Click here to see my results for 2006.  My goal for the year was to play at least 1,000 hours.  As you can see, I only played about 220.  If I really tried, I could have done this in two months.  Of course that would mean I would have lost a little over a grand in two months as well.  Okay, now take a look at a couple of things on the overall stats page.  Take a look at my total profit/loss, average profit/loss, and my standard deviation for cash games.  You can see that my average profit/loss per session is very small and my standard deviation is much bigger.  This tells me I can have big swings in my bankroll.  This also tells me that I really don't have enough data to tell me if I'm a winning or losing player at cash games even though at this point I am losing.  Now take a look at my sessions won vs sessions lost.  This causes me quite a bit of concern because it shows I don't have much of an edge over my competition (if any at all).  It also tells me I'll have more frequent bankroll swings.

    Now take a look at my overall hand stats for no limit holdem.  Outlined in red are the two most important stats I'm concerned about on this page.  First, my percentage of flops seen.  Second, my showdown win percentage.  Seeing only 18% of the flops might be a bit tight, I'm not sure.  I try to play only big hands, but I seem to lose a lot of money to people to get lucky and I manage to pay them off.  With big hands I win small and lose big.  It could be that I'm just playing them incorrectly, I'm not sure.  I have saved all my hand histories, so I'll have to review some of them.  I'm happy with a 60.1% showdown percentage because it shows that I'm winning more than half the time.  What it doesn't show is the size of those wins.  Since I'm losing, obviously this means I'm winning small pots and losing big ones.  What I should be ultimately aiming for is winning both.  Win small pots to build my stack, but also win the pots that matter.  Big ones.  Of course I can't win every pot, so the main ones I should be concerned about are the bigger ones.  I should be releasing the smaller pots more easily than I do.  When there is a big pot, I basically need to have the nuts to win it.  What seems to most frequently happen when I have the nuts is either everyone folds and I win a small pot or someone hit their long shot and I lose a big one.  Honestly, it's hard to tell what's happening.  For a true telling of events I should review my hand histories.  I'm sure I'll be slapping myself for mistakes I made that I didn't realize at the time.  I really wish Full Tilt would come out with a graphical hand history review program so I wouldn't have to sift through all the text.

    Overall, I think if I would have stuck to my original goals to where I would have played at least 1,000 hours and have played within my bankroll, I would have turned a small profit.  I think my results ultimately show I have a lack of discipline for which I have suffered the consequences.  The positive side is that I had discipline enough to keep accurate records to be able to learn from it.  Now that I have learned from this, what am I going to do for 2007?  Concentrate more on school!  Maybe some day I can turn poker into a worthwhile profitable experience, but not anytime soon.  This experience has shown me how much respect I should give to all the people who play the game professionally.  Poker is not a game you can make easy money off of.  Not long term, anyway.  The old saying holds true...Poker is a hard way to make an easy living.